U.S. Tariff Update - May 21, 2025 - Watching and Waiting

Since our last post, there has been little change to the written U.S. Tariff Policy. This does not mean, however, that markets and vendors are not reacting to the news of reduced tariff percentages on goods from China. 

As we reported in our May Port Report, predicted volumes coming into the U.S. were anticipated to be decreasing week over week. Based on an L.A. Port briefing earlier this week that describes the actual statistics, the Executive Director of the Port of LA states "volume in the first week of May here at the Port of LA was down more than 30% on the import side...". It would be reasonable to expect this trend to reverse over time, as the news of the tariff pause is integrated into new and existing orders across the country.

However, it is difficult to forecast exactly how the dramatic the swings in volumes, week-over-week, will show themselves as we get more data about May imports. It is also difficult to predict when a stabilization or perhaps even an increase in arrivals is to be expected, as the market reacts to the U.S. Tariff policy changes regarding goods made in China. Vessels arriving in May or actively on the water right now are bookings or blank sailings made weeks or months prior to the changes. It may be some time before we see the expected uptick in vessels booked following the tariff decreases last week. If and when we do, however, this could lead to congestion and delays in vessel arrivals and container pickups from ports. 

One thing that we are keeping an eye on is the GRI announcements for contract container rates. Many ocean carrier companies are announcing increases to surcharges ahead of the "peak" shipping season as many companies rush to get goods for the winter holiday season. "Under US Federal Maritime Commission regulations, carriers must announce price changes 30 days before they come into effect. However, a number of carriers currently have a 15 May general rate increase (GRI) on transpacific eastbound shipments already in place, which could prove to be first GRI in months to actually stick." While the GRIs do not directly affect the "spot" rate container market that many companies utilize to ship goods overseas - it can be an indication that these rates may raise in response to increased demand or base rates may be higher as we look forward. 

As many in the logistics industry are attempting to estimate what is to come in the next few months, we are continuing to monitor the statistics, reports, and estimates from experts in the field. However, our advice remains the same drumbeat; the best advisors to talk to are the vendors and importers handling the transport of these goods into the U.S.. Those folks are the ones actively booking containers and able to advise on current container rates. Importer companies and the vendors themselves are better able to advise on which components of the products - if any - may be subject to the new tariffs, taxes, and fees and can help make plans accordingly.