Key Takeaways
Container costs are up two or three times bigger than this time last year
Rates will stay high, and likely rise.
Ocean vessel schedule reliability is hovering around 55%.
Container availability is an issue at some ports.
For U.S. imports, expect minimal delays - on average 1-3 days.
Booking delays in Asia could be as high as four weeks
US Ports are operating effectively, no major concerns
The East and Gulf coast dockworkers contract expires Sept 30. They are negotiating a new contract, no strike announced.
Container Logistics
Rising Container Costs
Starting in May and continuing into July container rates have quickly increased, and are now at a yearly high.
40’ containers coming to the USA are now $9,000 - $12,000, with east coast arrivals being on the higher end.
Rates are not expected to fall soon, and will likely continue to increase.
Factors causing this increase:
Carriers canceling planned vessels, to ensure each boat that is moving is full. Leading to shippers fighting for the available space.
Vessel backups and delays in Singapore are causing a ripple across global ocean logistics.
Container availability issues are occurring. This is mostly due to the longer transit times boats have been facing for 8+ months.
Additionally, vessels being out of position due to longer transit times / delays.
Shippers are moving up their peak season shipments, which is worsening the current market conditions.
Imports to the US are up 12% year over year.
Panama Canal Congestion
Restrictions due to drought are still in place, however conditions are continuing to improve.
The canal is now allowing up to 31 vessels to transit, up from 24. This is lower than the previous maximum of 38-42.
By August the canal is expecting to increase transit slots to 35.
Suez Canal and the Red Sea
Starting in November 2023 and continuing into July most long-range steamship lines avoiding this area. Local traffic is continuing to use the canal.
Overall volume through the canal is down over 50% compared to this time last year.
Vessels inbound to the USA are continuing to route around Africa (Cape of Good Hope), which increases transit time by roughly a week.
See below image showing container vessels inbound to the USA, note the large amount using this new route.
US Port and Overland Overview
Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse and the Port of Baltimore
US East / Gulf Coast Dock Worker Contract
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) contract expires on September 30 2024. Negotiations are underway for a new contract.
The ILA represents workers at 36 ports along the Gulf and East coast.
Fuel Updates
Ocean Fuel (VLSFO) as of July 2024 is flat over the year
Compared to 2021 and prior the cost is still up 50% +
Diesel in the USA as the start of July is $3.65 a gallon
Diesel is still roughly 38% higher than 2019 levels, which is keeping freight prices elevated.
Additionally, average diesel prices reported by EIA.gov are typically lower than truck stop prices, and are average across large sections of the country.
National FTL rates are steady throughout 2024, though elevated from 2019 levels.
LTL and small package rates have continued to rise, due to the nature of how those networks function.
Data Analysis
May imports were 12% higher than 2023.
East Coast port load share stayed ahead of the West Coast through May 2024.
The PDF below is port-by-port review across the U.S. in July 2024 compared to 2023 & 2022.
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